NOW IT’S TIME TO PREPARE 7 Steps to Assess Climate Change Vulnerability in Your Community With funding support through Natural Resources Canada’s Regional Collaborative Adaptation Program Table of Contents 7 Steps to Assess Climate Change Vulnerability in Your Community Flooding Introduction Chapter 1 - Flooding & Climate Change Chapter 2 - Coastal Vulnerability & Climate Change Coastal Vulnerability Chapter 3 - Slope Movement & Climate Change Chapter 4 - Drinking Water Supply & Climate Change Slope Movement Chapter 5 - Winter & Climate Change Chapter 6 - Wildfire & Climate Change Conclusion Drinking Water Resource Guide Case Studies Winter Wildfire Table of Contents Acknowledgements: With kind permission from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), this guide has been adapted from the NOAA Coastal Services Centre’s Community Vulnerability Assessment Tool which is available at www.csc.noaa.gov/ products/nchaz/startup.htm Funding for this project has been provided by Natural Resources Canada and the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, Department of Environment and Conservation. The workbook has been developed by Memorial University of Newfoundland, Department of Geography (Dr. Kelly Vodden and Dr. Norm Catto, Melanie Irvine, Kathleen Parewick, Nicole Renaud and Kristina Turner with Sarah Chan, Gail Collins and Janelle Skeard) in partnership with: Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, Department of Environment and Conservation (Kimberly Bittermann and Tammy Keats); Municipalities Newfoundland and Labrador (Robert Keenan and Churence Rogers); and Professional Municipal Administrators (Derrick Bragg and Krista Planke). Edited and compiled by the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, Department of Environment and Conservation (Kimberly Bittermann, Courtney Blundon and Nicole Rowsell). Special thanks to Memorial University of Newfoundland, Department of Geography (Dr. Trevor Bell, Dr. Joel Finnis and Dr. Johanna Wolf) Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, Department of Natural Resources – Geological Survey Division (Dr. Martin Batterson), Forest Engineering and Industry Services Division (Eric Earle and Dan Lavigne), the communities of Corner Brook, Ferryland, Fortune, Indian Bay, Irishtown-Summerside and Logy Bay-Middle Cove-Outer Cove, and our Atlantic Partners from New Brunswick (Robert Hughes and Sabine Dietz), Nova Scotia (Will Green and Danny Walmsley) and Prince Edward Island (Erin Taylor and Don Jardine). Comments provided by the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, Rural Secretariat, Department of Municipal Affairs and the Atlantic Planners Institute are also gratefully acknowledged. Introduction Climate change is one of the most serious challenges facing government and community leaders today. Many communities across Canada are already experiencing the impacts of climate change. It is critical to examine how climate change will affect your community and to prepare for more variable weather patterns. In the past, communities were planned with the assumption that basic weather and climate patterns would remain the same over time. Today, the climate is much less predictable and communities need to prepare for uncertainty and extremes. Outlined in this workbook is a seven-step process to help you examine your community’s vulnerability to climate change. The issues examined are coastal vulnerability, flooding, slope movement, drinking water supply, wildfires, and winter conditions. This workbook is one of many tools that your community can use to prepare for climate change and other weather related hazards. Getting Started - Explaining Weather and Climate Weather is the current condition of the atmosphere which can change over minutes, days or months. Climate is the pattern or cycle of weather conditions such as temperature and precipitation measured over a period of 30 years or more. Aspects of climate include temperature, precipitation, wind speed and direction, sunshine, fog and the frequency and intensity of extreme events. Climate may affect your community in a variety of ways depending upon local geography and other features of your community. This guide will help you plan for the immediate and long-term impacts of climate change which may include slow, on-going processes such as sea level rise, or sudden events such as storm surges or wildfires. Climate is the long term condition of the atmosphere such as temperature and precipitation trends. Weather is the condition of the atmosphere over a short time period. Strong winds can cause severe property damage. This house in Francois, NL was split in half and blown down a hill during tropical storm Florence in 2006. In the future, there may be more frequent and more extreme storm events. Photo credit: Vickie Thorne Introduction I Trends and Variability Photo credit: Environment Canada This photo shows ice accumulation in Bonavista, NL. Under projected climate changes, winters may become more variable with a greater mixture of snow, ice and rain. It is widely accepted that our climate is warming and becoming more variable. The gradual increase in average global temperatures over a long period of time is a climate trend. Climate variability refers to the occurrence of highs and lows that are above or below the average state of the climate. Examples of variability include extreme events such as heavy rainfall, strong winds or extreme temperatures. Another example would be unusual temperatures or wide fluctuations in temperature within a single season. In the short term, changes in the variability of the climate may have a bigger impact on communities than a change in the long term climate trend. The consequences of this for local communities include seasons that are less predictable and weather that is more erratic. Communities can prepare for the future by considering climate change in their planning and development processes. For example, increased variability may mean that winter temperatures shift from below freezing to above freezing more often. This could result in a greater number of freeze/thaw/refreeze events, more freezing rain events, and an increase in ice-related driving hazards. Communities may need to change their road clearing strategies to deal with a wider range of road conditions during the winter months. What this Workbook Will Do This workbook will help you plan for climate and weather related issues that affect your community and assist you with developing strategies to deal with those issues. The focus is on climate change adaptation, which involves anticipating and planning for climate change. Mitigation, lowering emissions and working to reduce future climate change, is also important but is not the focus of this guide. For further information on mitigation, please see the resource guide at the back of this workbook. How this Workbook Can Help The process outlined in this workbook will: • Raise your awareness of climate change and weather-related issues; • Help you identify the types of issues related to climate change and water resources that are impacting your community; • Outline how the climate might change in the future and impact your community; • Help you prepare for these impacts; • Provide guidance on community-level decision making, zoning and permitting, infrastructure investments and community development; and • Provide information that you can use in existing planning efforts such as emergency plans, land use plans and economic development plans. II 7 Steps to Assess Climate Change Vulnerability in Your Community Seven-Step Process Each chapter of this workbook focuses on a climate change and weather-related issue. Within each chapter is a seven-step process to assist you with assessing your community’s vulnerabity to these issues. This seven-step process starts with identifying the problem and ends with identifying your adaptation options. The seven steps are: LO 1 INFRASTRUC T U RE 6 3 NMENT O R I ENV 2 7 S NS TIO CA OPT ION ISSUES 4 IETY SOC 5 ECON O M Y 1 Identify the types of climate and weather-related issues that have affected your community; 2 Locate where these issues have occurred or could occur in your community; 3 Assess what infrastructure has been or will be impacted; 4 Identify the residents who have been or will be most affected as well as those who can provide assistance in the community; 5 Assess which economic sectors have been or will be most impacted by the issues; 6 Identify how the natural environment has been or will be affected; and 7 Determine the best ways to address the issues identified. This seven-step process may need to be completed again in later years given that your community and the climate may change. Certain steps may need to be repeated or revisited after you gain more information or if new questions and concerns arise. Introduction III Community Mapping To complete the chapters in this workbook, you will need a map of your community. If you do not have a map to use for this purpose, please see the Resource Guide at the back of the workbook to find out how you can obtain one. Steps 2-7 of each chapter require that you identify on the map areas in your community where issues have occurred and could occur in the future. At each step in the process you will be asked to identify particular issues by drawing on your map. Upon reaching step seven of the chapter(s) that you have chosen to complete, your map will show: Proper planning can save lives, prevent damage to important infrastructure and save money in the long-term. • The location where the issue has occurred and where it could occur; • The infrastructure that has been or could be impacted; • Individuals and groups that have been or will be most affected and those who can provide assistance; • Economic sectors that have been or could be impacted; and • Environmentally sensitive areas that have been or could be affected. This information can guide you in directing adaptation efforts and future planning and development in your community. Community mapping in Logy Bay, NL. Areas and infrastructure at risk from river flooding were mapped out by community members. Photo credit: Kimberly Bittermann IV 7 Steps to Assess Climate Change Vulnerability in Your Community Recommendations for Workbook Completion Table 1 outlines a recommended course of action for assessing climate change issues in your community. Table 1: Organizing Action in Your Community Action Responsibilities Photo credit: Department of Transportation and Works, NL. 1. Establish main community contacts ❏ Select main contacts to participate as members of the project team Slope movement from flooding after Tropical Storm Chantal hit Newfoundland and Labrador, 2007. 2. Gather background information ❏ Gather relevant community information, such as: 3. Set up a community workshop or series of meetings • • • • Climate data Emergency and sustainability plans Maps Infrastructure and environmental studies ❏ Determine who would be interested in participating in this process and have important information to contribute ❏ Choose how you want to work through the 7 steps: • 1 half-day or full-day community workshop • A series of 2-3 meetings ❏ Identify a date, location and participants for the workshop or meetings ❏ ❏ ❏ Contribute suggestions and ideas 5. Present and discuss summary of findings ❏ ❏ Present findings to committee and community members 6. Moving forward on adaptation options ❏ Develop a workplan to implement your adaptation options and incorporate them into community planning 4. Investigate adaptation options Consider examples from other communities Consider how your community has adapted in the past Assess your adaptation options At the back of this workbook there is a resource guide that includes additional information on the issues identified throughout the workbook, a list of definitions, a section on funding opportunities and a section on other decision-making tools available. Here you will also find case studies that offer examples of how other communities have adapted to climate-related issues. Introduction V As you go through this process, use the resources available to identify, explore and address the issue(s) your community faces. Resources include previous studies in your area conducted by government, universities or other groups; newspaper articles; local knowledge; maps; on-line sources; museums and archives. Establishing a climate change adaptation committee, hosting a workshop and conducting interviews are all useful ways to collect information from community members. People you may want to contact include: ❏ ❏ ❏ ❏ ❏ ❏ ❏ ❏ ❏ ❏ ❏ ❏ ❏ ❏ ❏ ❏ ❏ Current and past mayors and councillors Town staff Elders and seniors Members of environmental organizations Emergency service personnel (police, fire, search and rescue) Planners Engineers Water and sewer workers Lands management personnel Fish harvesters Farmers Members of volunteer organizations Community researchers Foresters Coast guard personnel Members of stewardship groups Public health nurses Strong winds and waves can batter communities, causing damage to houses and docks along the coast, as seen in Port-aux-Basques, NL. Photo credit: Don Pittman VI 7 Steps to Assess Climate Change Vulnerability in Your Community Identifying Your Issues ISSUES ENT IRONM ENV 6 4 5 ECON OM Y Issue Identification Here you will identify the climaterelated issues that have occurred in your community and issues that could occur in the future. IETY SOC Things to consider: • Coastal vulnerability • Flooding • Drinking water supply • Slope movement • Winter conditions • Wildfire INFRASTRUCT URE • Identify the issues that could affect your community in the future. 3 • Identify the issues related to water, weather and climate that have affected your community in the past; and 2 7 OPT ION NS TIO CA This step will help you: LO 1 S Weather-related events can cause changes to the physical environment and result in damage to infrastructure, property, heritage sites or environmentally sensitive areas. In some cases, weather related issues such as increased precipitation can put people at risk and make it necessary to evacuate certain areas. Landslide in Daniel’s Harbour, NL, 2006. Photo credit: Fire and Emergency Services, NL Road washout in the Placentia area after Tropical Storm Chantal hit Newfoundland and Labrador in 2007. Photo credit: Department of Transportation and Works, NL Introduction VII Issues that have impacted your community Table 2 can be used to help you identify the issues related to water, weather and climate that have had an impact on your community. In the absence of written records, traditional and anecdotal local knowledge is a valuable resource. Table 2: Issues that have impacted your community Issue Yes No Flooding ❏ ❏ Coastal vulnerability ❏ ❏ Drinking water supply ❏ ❏ Slope movement ❏ ❏ Winter conditions ❏ ❏ Wildfire ❏ ❏ Other ❏ ❏ Details Damage on the Bonavista Peninsula, NL from Hurricane Igor, 2010. Photo credit: Fire and Emergency Services, NL VIII 7 Steps to Assess Climate Change Vulnerability in Your Community Answer the following questions to further consider how climate change may be affecting your community: Have you noticed changes in the weather and climate in your community? ❏ Yes ❏ No If yes, what are the changes? Photo credit: Fire and Emergency Services, NL Bonavista Ice Storm, 2010. Use Table 3 to indicate what types of changes have been occurring in your community: Table 3: Changes in Your Community Factor Change Comments Air temperature Extreme events Wind Snow Rain Sea level Other Introduction IX Wildfire in Badger, NL, 2005. Photo credit: Fire and Emergency Services, NL Summary of Changes Table 4 provides a summary of anticipated climate changes. This table shows an increase in climate indices, or variables, between the past (1961-2000) and anticipated future (2046-2065) climatology. The size of the arrow represents whether the change is expected to be small or large. These values were generated by climate simulations from the Canadian General Circulation Model. Although these changes will vary across the province, they provide a general idea of how the climate might change. These projected changes will have implications for communities and will be explored in the pages that follow. Table 4: Projected Changes in Climate Variables for Newfoundland and Labrador Variable Temperature average (°C), annual Temperature average (°C), spring Frost free days* Growing degree days** Direction of change Change in mean Ç Ç Ç Ç Change in standard deviation 4.01 -0.54 3.88 -0.61 44.51 -9.68 684.23 126.59 Precipitation average (mm), annual Ç 0.05 -0.13 Precipitation average (mm), spring Ç 0.17 0.07 Precipitation average (mm), winter Ç 0.13 0.20 Heavy rain events Ç 1.34 -0.70 Table produced by Dr. Joel Finnis, Memorial University of Newfoundland, Department of Geography. *Frost free days refer to the number of days between the last spring frost and the first fall frost. **Growing degree-days are a measurement of heat accumulation and are used by people in agriculture to help anticipate when a plant will be ready to harvest. X 7 Steps to Assess Climate Change Vulnerability in Your Community Local knowledge is also a key source of information on changing conditions. Residents who have lived in an area for a long time may have observed changes to local weather patterns and climate. This knowledge can be combined with observations made by researchers in order to understand the changes happening in your community. What We Can Expect in the Future Photo credit: P. Careen Taking into account climatic changes, economic development and social changes, use Table 5 to explore what issues might affect your community in the future. In the ‘Comments’ column, record any information you think is relevant, such as: An example of slump, a type of slope failure. • Whether or not the issue is new in your community; • How serious you think the issue will be; and • What the reason is for the change. Table 5: Climate Change Issues in The Future Issue Future Future Issue Issue Yes No Comments Flooding ❏ ❏ Coastal vulnerability ❏ ❏ Drinking water supply ❏ ❏ Slope movement ❏ ❏ Winter conditions ❏ ❏ Wildfires ❏ ❏ Other ❏ ❏ Introduction XI Before you work through any chapter of this workbook, you should take some time to identify the most important issues in your community. Using Table 6, identify issues that you feel are important enough for your community to consider in detail. Table 6: Issues that your community should consider in detail Please indicate with a √ if you think this issue is important enough to consider in detail. Issue Yes No Flooding ❏ ❏ ❏ ❏ ❏ ❏ ❏ ❏ ❏ ❏ ❏ ❏ ❏ ❏ Coastal vulnerability Slope movement Drinking water supply Winter conditions Wildfire Other Now that you have a better understanding of the types of issues affecting your community, explore the locations where those issues are occurring and who or what is most impacted. This workbook is divided into chapters based on specific issues such as flooding, coastal vulnerability and winter conditions. Please work through the chapters that are relevant to your community. Road damage on Random Island, NL, due to Hurricane Igor, 2010. Photo credit: Fire and Emergency Services , NL XII 7 Steps to Assess Climate Change Vulnerability in Your Community Road repair in the Placentia area after Tropical Storm Chantal hit Newfoundland and Labrador in 2007. Photo credit: Department of Transportation and Works, NL Final Checklist At the end of each of the seven steps, there is a final checklist of questions about the work you just completed. Please take the time to answer these questions as they are intended to focus your thoughts on the issues your community is facing and ensure you have the required information. Before moving on to the consideration of specific issues, please ask yourself the following questions and check the box if you have gained the required information or understanding. If you feel that there are gaps in your knowledge, please work through the chapter again and refer to the Resource Guide at the back of the workbook for assistance. Once you have gathered the information asked for in this Introduction chapter, you will be ready to work through the chapter(s) most relevant to your community. Do you have an understanding of the historical weather patterns and climate-related issues in your community? Have you identified the types of weather and climate-related issues that currently affect your community? Have you identified the types of issues that might affect your community in the future? Introduction XIII