Climate Change Scenarios For Atlantic Canada Utilizing A Statistical Downscaling Model Based On Two Global Climate Models

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Corporate Author(s)/Creator(s): Climate Change Section, Meteorological Service of Canada, Atlantic Region, Environment Canada
Author(s)/Creator(s): Gary S. Lines
Date Issued: 2008-07-01
Publisher: Climate Change Section, Meteorological Service of Canada, Atlantic Region, Environment Canada
Description: Values of daily maximum temperature (Tmax), daily minimum temperature (Tmin), and total daily precipitation (Pcpn), were downscaled using the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) and predictors based on the Canadian Coupled General Circulation Model version 2 (CGCM2) and the Hadley Research Center’s Hadley Climate Model version 3 (HadCM3) running the SRES emission scenario experiment B2 for 14 sites in Atlantic Canada. As an example of an extreme event, the maximum 24- hour precipitation was generated using the extreme value analysis (EV1) method of Gumbel, to determine any change in return period between the base climate values and the projected values. In addition, 52 extreme weather indices were defined using Stardex software, and a selected index (growing season length) was generated for the base climate period (1961-90) and values projected for three future periods, namely the 2020’s (2010-2039), the 2050’s (2040-2069), and the 2080’s (2070- 2099). All of these values were compared by examining the generated results from downscaling to the model output. The results confirm the conclusion that more than one model output must be utilized to determine appropriate views of future climate, as the main source of uncertainties comes from the various sources of GCM driven conditions.
Type of Document: report
Language(s) of Resource: English
Keywords: climate change impacts
Province: Nova Scotia

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